SINGAPORE, 23 April 2018:
Singaporeans are waiting to find out who will be anointed to take over from prime minister Lee Hsien Loong and become the city-state’s fourth leader since its independence in 1965.
Current PM Lee, the eldest son of Singapore’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew, said he intends to step down in coming years. Singapore needs to hold its next general election by early 2021.
The decision will be taken by a group of 16 so-called fourth-generation leaders, all government ministers, who have been asked to choose the next leader from within their own ranks. There is no specific deadline for their decision.
Singapore’s media and political analysts have narrowed the list of potential successors down to three most likely candidates – finance minister Heng Swee Keat, education minister Ong Ye Kung and cabinet member Chan Chun Sing – but there remains no obvious frontrunner.
All three contenders are ethnically Chinese, and went to the same elite high school – Raffles Institution, formerly known as Raffles Junior College. A third of the city-state’s current cabinet members, and half of the so-called fourth generation of 16 leaders tasked with picking PM Lee’s successor, also came from the same school.
Heng, Ong and Chan were awarded government scholarships, and all three read economics at top British universities, with Heng and Chan at Cambridge University, and Ong at the London School of Economics.
The scholarships they earned required them to go straight into public service after university.
HENG SWEE KEAT, 57
Heng, currently finance minister, was the managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the island-state’s central bank, from 2005 to 2011, including the years of the global financial crisis.
After leaving university, Heng joined the Singapore police force, rising through the ranks to assistant commissioner.
He then held various public service positions, including principal private secretary to then-senior minister Lee Kuan Yew from 1997-2000. He was also chief executive officer of Singapore’s Trade Development Board.
After the 2011 election, Heng was appointed education minister, and took up his current finance post in 2015.
In 2016, Heng collapsed from a stroke during a cabinet meeting. That led to questions about whether he would be fit enough to be the next leader.
ONG YE KUNG, 48
Ong, the education minister, served as PM Lee’s press secretary from 1997-2003 and then as his principal private secretary from 2003-2005.
In 2005, Ong took over as the chief executive of the government’s Workforce Development Agency, and three years later became deputy secretary general of the country’s national confederation of labor unions.
Ong’s first foray into parliamentary politics in 2011 didn’t go so well – he was part of a group of PAP candidates defeated by the opposition Workers’ Party.
As he waited to stand again, he worked as director of group strategy at Keppel Corp, which his owned by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings and whose businesses range from rig building to property development.
After winning a seat at the 2015 elections, he immediately entered cabinet as acting education minister. In 2016, he took on the education post permanently and also became the second minister in the defense ministry.
CHAN CHUN SING, 48
As minister in the prime minister’s office, Chan sits in cabinet but does not hold a portfolio.
Before entering politics, he spent 24 years in the Singapore military, rising to Chief of Army in 2010.
He became a member of parliament after the 2011 general election and was appointed acting minister for community development, youth and sports, and served in the communications ministry. He later served as minister for social and family development.
Chan also currently heads the NTUC, the labour union confederation. Chan said he, and his colleagues in the fourth generation of leaders, are all prepared to become PM if called upon.
Singaporeans are not used to uncertainty when it comes to their future political leaders.
The protracted process, portrayed as an experiment in democracy in the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), has already caused a rare disagreement between the current and former prime ministers, and raised questions about whether there is enough time to groom a capable successor.
The uncertainty comes at a time when Singapore is facing some major challenges if it is to remain as vibrant and prosperous in the future as it is today.
Among the issues is the impact of a rapidly aging population on the island state’s finances, the increasing competition it faces for its traditional business strengths – such as its thriving port – and how to handle the growing dominance of China in the region as both an economic and political power.
Eugene Tan, an academic and former nominated member of the Singapore parliament, said there appeared to be a “delay” in picking a new leader because of a “lack of consensus”.
He added that it was not clear whether this lack of consensus was within the group of ministers or because PM Lee has decided more time is needed for his successor to be identified.
PM Lee told reporters at a press conference in London on Friday: “I’m quite confident that gradually they (the group of ministers) are beginning to have a sense of one another and who they would like to have to lead them.”
Lee has previously said he will not appoint any new deputy prime ministers in a cabinet reshuffle due this week, suggesting that there is unlikely to be much of a hint about succession in the announcement.
Reports from The Straits Times newspaper, which is often seen as close to the government and the PAP, indicate that previous succession decisions were made swiftly and well ahead of any handover.
The decision to pick Goh, the successor to Lee Kuan Yew, was “made over coffee, orange juice and chocolate cake” by a group of party leaders some six years before he took office in 1990, the newspaper said in an article in January.
Picking Lee Hsien Loong appeared even easier – made “over lunch” in 1990 – some 14 years before he became prime minister in 2004, it added.
This time, the decision to find a replacement for 66-year-old Lee Hsien Loong has been put in the hands of the so-called “fourth generation” of 16 leaders – all ministers but some not yet in the cabinet.
PM Lee has previously said he does not think any of his four children will enter politics.
“One of the criticisms from the outside of Singapore is that it is too familial, that the Lee family had too much of an impact. Now, there’s nobody obvious to succeed him, so that’s good,” said Peter Schwartz, a distinguished international fellow at the Centre for Strategic Futures in the Singapore prime minister’s office.
The long process has led to the disagreement with former premier Goh.
In a Facebook post in December, Goh called for Lee Hsien Loong’s successor to be chosen by the group of ministers within six-to-nine months. Lee responded by saying Goh was “speaking from the privilege of watching things rather than being responsible to make it happen”.
In a joint statement in January, the fourth generation leaders said they were “keenly aware” of the “pressing issue” of succession and would pick a leader “in good time”.