China population has begun decline

BEIJING, 17 Jan 2020:

China in 2019 recorded its lowest gross birth rate since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, according to official data published today.

In its annual report on the national economic situation, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the crude birth rate was 10.48 per thousand last year.

According to the data, a total of 14.65 million babies were born in 2019 in the country – 580,000 less than in 2018 – making it the lowest figure recorded since 1961.

Despite a rise in 2016 due to the end of the “one-child policy” introduced in 1979, the crude birth rate has fallen in the last two years.

During the presentation of the report, NBS Commissioner Ning Jizhe acknowledged the trend, although adding that “it is still a large number” and “the decrease is smaller than the previous two years.”

Ning revealed that 57% of the babies born in 2019 were second children.

“That has been going up for several years. So our policy is working,” Ning insisted.

However, the aim of the “two-child policy” was to keep the number of births around 20 million per year, more than the figure finally registered in 2019.

According to experts, the high living costs such as in education, and the changing career priorities of women are holding back couples who want to have their first child, as well as those who want to have a second.

The decline in births could pose a demographic problem for a country – which is already faced with an aging population, that together with the decline in the number of people of working age, may present long-term challenges for the world’s second-largest economy.

The more pessimistic of the experts have said China might get old before it gets rich.

In 2019, the percentage of Chinese people aged 60 and over was 18.1, while those aged 65 and over accounted for 12.6% of the population.

In 2018, these demographic groups stood at 17.9% and 11.9% respectively.

“Last year the increase of population aged 60 and above was quite small compared with previous years,” Ning said.

However, he added that the Chinese government would have to cope with “structural changes in our population, particularly the aging population.”

According to the data published today, China ended 2019 with a population of 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.67 million compared to 2018.

– EFE